![]() But as AI advances, future commanders and heads of state will have increased abilities to influence the views of reality held by their enemy counterparts. As in the past, countries and terrorists alike will want to acquire intelligence for war fighting and deny it to their opponents. Civilian leaders in the executive branch and Congress could use AI to obtain a clearer picture of which missions are being carried out by which agencies and which secrets are worth keeping and for how long.įourth, more wars will be information-related, in the largest sense. AI will also challenge the traditions within the US intelligence community of bureaucratic protectionism. AI may also allow for faster interpretation of signals intelligence and other information and for a more rapid insertion of pertinent knowledge into the OODA (observe, orient, decide, and act) loop of decision making. AI may support more strategic dives into massive databases to retrieve and collate information that could save lives or win battles. Currently, decision makers are data collection-rich and analysis-poor. Yet AI systems will provide superior tools with which to analyze data collections for timely use by commanders and policy makers. AI will make possible the collection of even more enormous amounts of data compared to those already gathered and stored in government servers. Third, the management of national and military intelligence will face formidable challenges from mature AI systems. Think of the first decades of institutional “computerization” in the government-on steroids. Contractors will make fortunes providing service-selective AI systems for the specific needs of the US Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, and other components of the Department of Defense and other national security bureaucracies. accessible only to expert technicians and the few very highest-ranking generals and admirals. AI systems will increasingly be linked across departments and other bureaucratic stovepipes, eventually crunching everybody into one colossal metaspace. Subordinate commanders will find that they are “reporting” to an AI system that is serving as a surrogate for higher-level commanders who, in turn, will be accountable to their superiors for performance as measured by yet another AI system. Second, the human-machine interface will be transformed when current AI systems attain maturity and compete with, or surpass, certain aspects of human decision making, including memory storage, flexibility, and self-awareness. To be successful, political and military leaders will have to think fast, hit hard, assess rapidly, reconstitute for another punch, bob and weave-in essence, boxing in virtual reality. Since the art of battle depends upon the combination of fire and maneuver supported by accurate intelligence, AI systems will brew the optimal combination of kinetic strikes supported by timely intelligence and prompt battle damage assessment. Flexibility and agility will be the hallmarks of successful leaders who can master the AI-driven sciences of military planning, logistics and war fighting. What used to be called “war gaming” will ascend to a higher level of scenario building and deconstruction. We will be able to “project” future commanders backward into the AI version of battles fought by great captains and retroactively change the scenarios into “what ifs” or counterfactuals to further challenge students and instructors. Historical experiences of great commanders will no longer be available only from books and articles. ![]() Military theorists, strategic planners, scientists and political leaders will face at least seven different challenges in anticipating the directions in which the interface between human and machine will move in the next few decades.įirst, the education and training of military professionals will undergo a near revolution. Amid the uncertainty, the United States and other countries must consider the possible impact of AI on their armed forces and their preparedness for war fighting or deterrence. Their concerns include the possibility that artificial intelligence will increase in capability faster than human controllers’ ability to understand or control.Īn autonomous AI technology that equaled or surpassed human cognition could redefine how we understand both technology and humanity, but there is no surety as to whether or when such a “superintelligence” might emerge. Corporate technical experts and some public officials want to declare a temporary moratorium on AI research and development. Artificial intelligence (AI) has recently taken center stage in US public policy debates. ![]()
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